Press Release

Embargo: 00:01 Wednesday 15th August 2007

To meet the government’s housing target we need to build almost 2 million new homes on green land

If the UK is to meet the government’s housing target of 3 million new homes by 2020, it will have to build 1.8 million new houses on greenfield sites or the Green Belt, argues the first report from the SMF’s Internal Commission, Should the green belt be preserved?   The report outlines the preliminary findings of the Commission, concluding that the 3 million target is the minimum need to ease the UK’s overstretched housing market.  

The first report from the Commission highlights the stark choices the UK faces over where to build the new homes. On current plans, brownfield land could only accommodate 1.2 million new homes. More could be built, but only if people living in towns and cities were prepared to sacrifice the size of their gardens and parks, both of which are included in the definition of brownfield sites.

The report therefore concludes that around 2 million homes will need to be built outside of existing town and city boundaries. The choice is between building these on greenfield (undeveloped) sites or the Green Belt.

The report highlights common misconceptions about the Green Belt, with 46% believing it is to preserve areas of natural beauty when it was established to prevent urban sprawl and contains scrub land and some ex-industrial land, as well as green sites. Given that the Green Belt isn’t as green as people believe, the report argues it is time to have a debate about loosening green belt boundaries.  

Commenting, Director of the Social Market Foundation, Ann Rossiter said:

“The UK faces tough choices in meeting its housing needs.  Even if we built on all brownfield sites, including gardens and parks in our towns and cities, we would not be able to meet housing demand. So we will need to build significant numbers of houses on greenfield and Green Belt sites. There is no easy answer and wherever we build new houses involves trade offs. It is time for a sensible debate about how best to make these trade offs.”

ENDS
Notes to editors:
  1. For all media enquiries, please contact Jenni Pain at jpain@smf.co.uk or on 020 7227 4411 (work) or 07917 820 939 (mobile).
  2. The reports findings are based on the following assumptions:
    1. The amount of new previously developed land (PDL) becoming available each year will be a fixed proportion of the previous year’s stock.
    2. 20% of PDL land used for housing will be taken up with the infrastructure necessary to support new housing development (an assumption used by the National Land Use Database).
    3. The current average density for developments throughout England is 45 dwellings per hectare (dph).  The SMF has calculated three scenarios using different densities:
      1. Low: Building at 20dph means PDL could accommodate 500,000 homes and would run out in 2012.
      2. Medium: Building at 45dph means PDL could accommodate 1.2 million new homes and would run out in 2014 (the scenario being discussed in the press release).
      3. High: Building at 80dph means PDL could accommodate 2.1 millions homes and would run out in 2016.
  3. MORI national survey for CABE, What home buyers want, 2005 showed that most Britons prefer low density dwellings.
  4. The government currently requires a minimum standard for all dwellings through England of 30 dwellings per hectare (dph).  This is similar to a small village.  London, on the other hand, has an average density of almost 80 dph.
  5. Ipsos MORI survey in 2006 found that:
    1. 60% of people thought green belts were to protect wildlife.
    2. 46% of people thought green belts preserved areas of outstanding natural beauty.
    3. 16% of people thought ‘land on the edge of cities’ was the most important to protect against development.
  6. The Social Market Foundation will be publishing the full report of Should the green belt be preserved? later this year.
  7. All figures in this SMF press release refer to England only.  UK population growth over the coming decades is expected to be heavily concentrated in England. While real income growth also drives household formation this is likely to be at least as high in England as in other nations of the UK.Increases in housing demand will be greatest in England and it is this    English demand that the government’s 3m homes target is intended to meet. Planning regulations also differ significantly from nation to nation within the UK and the greenbelt is a purely English phenomenon.
  8. All figures in the SMF press release To meet the government’s housing target we need to build almost 2 million new houses on green land refer to England only.

UK population growth over the coming decades is expected to be heavily concentrated in England. While real income growth also drives household formation this is likely to be at least as high in England as in other nations of the UK.

Increases in housing demand will be greatest in England and it is this English demand that the government’s 3m homes target is intended to meet.

Planning regulations also differ significantly from nation to nation within the UK and the greenbelt is a purely English phenomenon.