Police pay in the UK has declined substantially in real terms since 2000, making the police an outlier among similar occupational roles and among public sector workers more widely. If this were to continue, as Shreya Nanda shows, it would mean a further 4 per cent real-terms decline in by 2027.
Analysis of ONS data on nominal pay for selected occupation and sector groups shows that police pay rose by 39% in total between 2000 and 2022 (see Figure 1), while inflation over the period was 67%, and average pay across all employees rose by 76%. This equates to a total real-terms fall of 17% over the period, or 0.8 per cent per year (see Figure 2).
Figure 1: Nominal annual gross pay for selected occupations and sectors, 2000-2022
Source: SMF analysis of ONS and House of Commons Library data
Notes: There is a methodological change between 2005 and 2006 in the ONS pay data series. For protective services officer and police officer pay, we have included data on both senior and non-senior staff pay. “Protective services officer” is a statistical definition covering a range of occupations including police officers, members of the armed forces, fire service officers and prison service officers.
This makes the police an outlier among protective services workers; public sector workers; and all workers. All of these groups saw their pay rise in real terms over this period – by 1%, 14%, and 5% in total respectively. We have also included MPs as an additional comparator group – this group saw their salaries rise by 4 per cent in total over the period (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Real annual gross pay index for selected occupations and sectors, 2000-2022, 2000 = 100
Source: SMF analysis of ONS and House of Commons Library data
Notes: There is a methodological change between 2005 and 2006 in the ONS pay data series.
This decline in real-terms pay may in part be due to restrictions on police officers’ right to strike, following the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994. The same restriction applies to prison officers, who have seen their pay decline by 12% in real terms over the same period.[1]
We also looked at what would happen if these real-terms trends continued over the next five years. This would imply a further 4 per cent real-terms decline in police officer pay by 2027, compared to a 1 per cent and 3 per cent rise for private and public sector workers, respectively (see Figure 3). Given that inflation in 2023 is currently expected to average 7.4 per cent, this would still require police officer pay to rise by 6.5 per cent in 2023.
Figure 3: Projected real-terms pay index for selected occupations and sectors, 2022-27, 2022 = 100
Source: SMF analysis of ONS, House of Commons Library, and OBR data
Finally, we looked at starting salaries for new police constables, going back to 1979. While we did not find a real-terms decline over this period, we did find that constable starting salaries have risen considerably slower than earnings as a whole across the economy. As Figure 4 shows, constable starting salaries rose by 51% in real terms over this period, or 1% per annum; while earnings for all workers rose by 111%, or 1.8% per annum.
Figure 4: Real annual earnings for selected occupations, 1979 and 2021, 1979 prices
Source: SMF analysis of ONS, Bank of England, Home Office and Police Federation data
A key factor in discussions of police pay is the “P-factor” – an element of police pay that reflects the unique obligations and responsibilities of a police officer relative to other comparable roles. This includes the risk of exposure to physical, psychological, legal, social and economic harm. This factor, and its use in pay benchmarking, was discussed by the Police Remuneration Review Body in their latest review of police pay. We have not considered this factor in our analysis – we have looked purely at trends in police pay over time, and how these compare to trends over time in pay for other occupational roles.
In the context of ongoing inflation, indications of a police retention crisis, and reports of officers being forced to turn to foodbanks, police pay is an issue that is only likely to increase in salience.
NOTE: This blog is sponsored by Police Federation of England and Wales. The SMF retains full editorial independence over all its outputs.
[1] Data was not available for senior prison officer pay, so this analysis relates to non-senior prison officer pay only.