This report uses data from two previous recessions and the latest Ernst & Young ITEM Club economic growth forecasts to estimate what might happen to claimant count unemployment and the number of long-term unemployed in particular. SMF analysis suggests that the claimant count will peak at over 2.7 million in 2011-12, while the number of long-term unemployed people (those without work for more than one year) will rise to a peak of around 1.1 million by 2012. While in recent years long-term unemployment has been a minor part of total unemployment, this is set to change radically with important implications for how policy should respond.
The jobs crisis and what to do about it
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